Photo by Black Bloke/PorcFest
Jason Sorens of Free State Project fame has once again crunched the numbers to figure out where libertarians are clustered around the United States. It's an effort he previously made in 2010 and he repeats the exercise using updated figures from the 2012 election. With minor adjustments, he once again finds that libertarians are largely concentrated in the West, with New Hampshire an isolated outpost of freedom lovers in a sea of eastern suckage.
Sorens writes:
To see which states have the most libertarians, I use six measures: Libertarian Party presidential vote share in 2008 and 2012, Ron Paul contributions as a share of personal income in 2007-8, Ron Paul and Gary Johnson contributions as a share of income in 2011-12, and "adjusted" Ron Paul primary vote share in 2008 and 2012. Ron Paul vote shares are adjusted for primary vs. caucus, calendar, number of other candidates, and the like (for details see this post). Hawaii and Wyoming are excluded because they did not collect vote shares in the 2008 presidential primary. D.C. is included.
I'm not at all surprised to see states east of the Mississippi, whether blue or red, score so poorly. Frankly, it corresponds closely with the fever swamp of smug authoritarianism I note in conversations with and Facebook feeds from eastern friends and relations. Popular culture fears of the zombie apocalypse clearly reflect our implicit knowledge of what's going to happen when easterners one day shake their heads, look around, and simultaneously try to flee one another in a mad rush across the Mississippi River.
It's going to be ugly.
The states are ranked from most to least libertarian below (although omitted, Wyoming seemed to trend above average, Sorens notes in the comments). Montana and New Mexico are both overstated in the rankings, Sorens says, because Ron Paul was on the 2008 Montana general election ballot as the presidential candidate of the Constitution Party, while former governor Gary Johnson drew outsized support from his home state when he ran.
Note that these rankings are based on concentrations of libertarian supporters, not local laws and policies. And don't get hung up on the numbers, unless you're a statistician.
Montana 5.504036 New Hampshire 4.163368 Alaska 3.586032 New Mexico 3.319092 Idaho 2.842685 Nevada 2.477748 Texas 1.632528 Washington 1.568113 Oregon 1.180586 Arizona 1.0411 North Dakota 0.7316829 Indiana 0.6056806 California 0.5187439 Vermont 0.4731389 Utah 0.2056809 Colorado 0.1532149 Kansas 0.107657 South Dakota 0.0328709 Maine -0.0850015 Pennsylvania -0.2063729 Iowa -0.3226413 Georgia -0.3296589 Virginia -0.3893113 Maryland -0.4288172 Rhode Island -0.470931 Tennessee -0.4882021 Missouri -0.4912609 Arkansas -0.5384682 Louisiana -0.5897537 Nebraska -0.6350928 Minnesota -0.7662109 Michigan -0.7671053 North Carolina -0.811959 South Carolina -0.8196676 Illinois -0.9103957 Ohio -0.9599612 Delaware -1.057948 Florida -1.072601 District of Columbia -1.091851 New York -1.225912 Kentucky -1.330388 Massachusetts -1.342607 Wisconsin -1.410286 New Jersey -1.431843 Connecticut -1.606663 Alabama -1.863769 Oklahoma -1.93511 West Virginia -2.244921 Mississippi -2.519249
Read the whole thing here.
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