Much of how the rest of the euro crisis develops depends on how inspectors of the troika (European Commission, European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) judge Greece's efforts to implement reforms and austerity measures. If the troika reports that the Greek government has been unable to make the necessary reforms then it is possible that the next bailout installment will be withheld, and Greece will almost certainly default on its debt.
It now looks like officials from Washington might be trying to delay reports on Greece's austerity efforts because it might cause a downturn in the global economy before Election Day.
From Reuters:
A U.S. official said the United States had made clear to European officials that it wanted to avoid any "downside" economic surprises because of the fragile U.S. recovery, but denied that it had anything to do with the U.S. election. Several sources in Germany described those conversations with their U.S. counterparts and said the message had been that the Americans didn't want surprises before the election.
Recent polling indicates that Obama is doing well, but a global economic shock like a Greek default and euro exit would have the potential to make the presidential race much tighter. It is worth remembering that most European politicians are hardly fans of Republicans.
From the same Reuters piece:
"As far as European leaders are concerned, they don't want Romney, so they're probably willing to do anything to help Obama's chances," said the source, an EU official involved in finding solutions to the debt crisis.
A Greek default and euro exit would almost certainly prompt a downturn in the global economy and potentially accelerate the euro crisis. Despite the negative effects this would have on most people Mitt Romney would stand to gain. It looks like this is an outcome some from Washington have already taken steps to avoid, at least until the election is over.
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