While I've been delving into the social science literature to see if I can garner some insights into the dynamics of elections, I came across an intriguing article in the journal Political Science and Politics by former University of Gotheberg economist Douglas Hibbs in which the results his bread and peace model concludes that President Barack Obama is very unlikely to win in November. His model over a president's term of office combines a weighted (1) average of per capita disposable income growth and (2) the per capita number of casualties from wars of choice.
Hibbs thinks that war casualties will not play a big role in determining the results of this election, however, for Obama to win, his number crunching suggests that…
…per capita real income growth rates must average out at more than 6% after 2012:q2 for Obama to have a decent chance of reelection. If the US economy experiences an unanticipated reversal of fortune with growth surging to rates not uncommon in the initial robust phase of recoveries from deep contractions, Obama could squeak out a win, as implied by the last column of table 2.
Anybody around here seen 6 percent economic growth in the last couple of quarters? In likely scenarios, Hibbs' model projects that on November 6, Obama's "expected two-party vote share will be 47.2 percent."
The Hill is reporting that in Tuesday's Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters:
Romney takes 51 percent support to Obama's 46 in the survey of likely voters. Among registered voters, Romney maintained his lead of 48 to 47 over the president.
Go here to download Hibb's article.
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